大越期货沥青期货早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average level, and the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2510 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3438 - 3484 [8][10][15]. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support for asphalt prices, but the demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The production of sample enterprises increased, raising the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - Demand Side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points [8]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Other Factors: On August 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 159 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory was 1343000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; the in - plant inventory was 711000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 190000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position increased [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's market overview, including the prices, changes, and inventory data of different asphalt contracts, as well as the profit data of asphalt coking and the number of registered warehouse receipts [17][18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis Trend: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [20]. - Spread Analysis: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [39][42]. - Supply - Side Analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and estimated maintenance loss volume [45][47][50][54][57][60][62]. - Inventory Analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio [65][69][73]. - Import and Export Situation: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88][92][97][103]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production [108][109].