大越期货PVC期货早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5043 - 5151. The market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [9][12][13]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Base Price: On August 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 167 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish signal [10]. - Inventory: The factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a 3.68% decrease, and the ethylene factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a 1.14% decrease. The social inventory was 492,800 tons, a 2.49% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises was 5.4 days, a 3.57% decrease, which is a bearish signal [10]. - Market Trend: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, which is a bearish signal [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply Side: In July 2025, the PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a 0.01 - percentage - point increase. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a 1.67% increase, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a 0.28% decrease. The supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a 0.10 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.96%, a 0.869 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.86%, a 4.06 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.97%, a 0.429 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 8.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 10.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,680.05 yuan/ton, with a profit decrease of 0.00% from the previous period, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base Price Trend: The report presents the base price trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the base price, the East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18]. - Price and Volume Trend: The report shows the price and volume trend chart of PVC futures, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the change trends of the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21]. - Spread Analysis: The report analyzes the spread of the main contract, presenting the spread trends of 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 in 2024 and 2025 [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Related Factors - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and other data trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025, as well as the cost - profit, double - ton spread, and other data of the calcium carbide method and the chlorine - alkali industry [27][29][31][33][36]. - Supply Trend: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and other data trends of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method from 2018 to 2025 [38][40][42]. - Demand Trend: The report shows the trading volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and other data trends of PVC from 2019 to 2025, as well as the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, and other data related to PVC demand, and the social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, infrastructure investment, and other macro - demand - related data [44][46][48][53][56]. - Inventory Situation: The report shows the data trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory from 2019 to 2025 [58]. - Ethylene Method - Related: The report shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [63].