Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, there are factors of cost - upward support and manufacturers' plans for shutdown and production cuts, but there are also issues such as slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The downward trend is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9010 [6][12][13]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51205 - 54275 [8][9][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 87,000 tons, a 3.57% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased. The inventory of polysilicon is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. The inventory of silicone is at a low level, with a production profit of 392 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 75.05%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level, with an import loss of 502 yuan/ton. The freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi is 581.84 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum is 53%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week, at a low level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2939 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 15, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 395 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 545,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises is 171,150 tons, a 0.65% increase from the previous week. The inventory of major ports is 117,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease from the previous week, which is bearish [6]. - Market Chart: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes below MA20, which is neutral [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: Supply production is increasing and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is increasing. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9010 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 29,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 12.1GW, a 0.66% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 198,000 tons, a 3.61% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production for August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the production of battery cells was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cells in external sales factories was 4.98GW, a 29.01% increase from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The planned production for August is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase from the previous month. In July, the production of components was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. The expected production of components in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9720 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On August 15, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5740 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 242,000 tons, a 3.86% increase from the previous week, at a high level in the same historical period, which is neutral [10]. - Market Chart: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20, which is bullish [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [10]. - Expectation: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51205 - 54275 [10]. Other Key Points - Industrial Silicon Market Overview: The report provides detailed data on the prices, production, inventory, and other aspects of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the prices, production, and inventory of its downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [16][18]. - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends of Industrial Silicon: It shows the trends of the basis of the main contract of industrial silicon and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [20]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [24]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: It shows the production and capacity utilization trends of sample enterprises of industrial silicon [27]. - Main Production Area Electricity Price Trends: It shows the electricity price trends in main production areas such as Yunnan Nujiang, Sichuan Liangshan, and Xinjiang Turpan [32]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Area Trends: It shows the cost - profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [33]. - Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: They show the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Organic Silicon: It includes the price and production trends of DMC, the price trends of downstream products, and the import - export and inventory trends [41][43][46]. - Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Aluminum Alloy: It includes the price and supply situation, inventory and production trends, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) [49][52][54]. - Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon: It includes the cost and price trends, supply - demand balance sheet, silicon wafer trends, and battery cell trends [57][60][63].
工业硅期货早报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:54