大越期货菜粕早报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, domestic aquaculture demand, and supply changes. In the short term, it shows a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The RM2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The rapeseed meal market is affected by profit - taking and the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased slightly in August, and the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of oil mills. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in inventory, production, and consumption over the years [23][24]. - Price data: The trading average price, trading volume, and price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 6 - 15 are presented, as well as the rapeseed meal futures and spot prices during the same period [12][14]. - Inventory data: Rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.52% and a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. The arrival of imported rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the inventory of oil mills has returned to a low level while rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [8][25][27]. - Production data: The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs, as well as the OECD's forecast of Chinese fish production and imports are mentioned. Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp - shellfish prices remain stable [31][33][35]. 3.5 Position Data The main short positions in rapeseed meal have decreased, and funds have flowed in [8].