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芳烃橡胶早报-20250818
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-18 03:21
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with low processing fees, additional maintenance has increased. Although the sales of filament are weak, significant further production cuts are unlikely in the short - term. The bottle - chip inventory has been continuously decreasing with low operation. Overall, the polyester operation is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. There is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [1]. - For MEG, there are some postponed restarts in domestic plants and unexpected overseas maintenance. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short - term with limited inventory accumulation pressure. The situation is good with decent profits. In the long - term, inventory accumulation is expected due to the return from maintenance and new plant commissioning, and the valuation is greatly affected by the cost side. It should be viewed as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn has been continuously decreasing, the downstream operation may continue to rise. Although the supply of staple fiber may also increase, the overall space is limited. Considering the low processing fees on the futures market, there is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but shows no seasonal decline. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From August 11 - 15, crude oil decreased by 0.9, PTA spot price increased by 10, and the processing fee decreased by 13. The average daily transaction basis was 2509(-13) [1]. - Device Changes: Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 million - ton plant restarted, Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton plant restarted, and Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton plant was under maintenance [1]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From August 11 - 15, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, the inner - market price decreased by 6, and the coal - based profit decreased by 37.68. The basis was around 09(+87) [3]. - Device Changes: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shenghong's 1.9 million - ton plant stopped operating due to an accident [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From August 11 - 15, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 50, and the profit increased by 43. The spot price was around 6468, and the market basis was around 09 - 0 [3]. - Device Changes: Ningbo Dafa's technical - renovation plant resumed operation, and the operation rate slightly increased to 91.1% [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: From August 11 - 15, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 25, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 410. The weekly changes were 35 and 470 respectively [4]. - Other Indicators: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [4]. Sty,rene - Price Changes: From August 11 - 15, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 5, and the domestic profit increased by 28 [6].