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原油成品油早报-20250818
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-18 03:18

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focused on the cease - fire negotiations in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of sanctions policies has decreased. [7] - In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile. The supply of Russian crude oil should be monitored. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of supply - demand surplus. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Oil Price Data - From August 11 - 15, 2025, WTI decreased by $1.16, BRENT by $0.99, and DUBAI by $0.47. SC increased by 4.40, and OMAN decreased by $0.83. [3] - The prices of other products such as domestic gasoline, Japanese naphtha, and Singapore fuel oil also had corresponding changes during this period. [3] b. Daily News - Trump said that the US had made significant progress with Russia and would hold a meeting with Zelensky next Monday. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", Trump temporarily did not consider imposing tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil. [6][7] - The Russian side said that the talks between Putin and Trump were very positive. If Putin opposes a cease - fire, the US may impose sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. [6] c. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 25.9 barrels per day to 357.7 barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 4.3 barrels to 1332.7 barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 303.6 barrels to 4.27 billion barrels, an increase of 0.72%. [7] - From August 8 - 14, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries increased, while the inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries increased month - on - month. [7]