Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of a bearish macro - environment and a slight weakening of the methanol supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is expected to experience weak oscillations next week, with the possibility of local price drops. Inland, due to the pessimistic sentiment among industry players caused by the macro - situation and the lack of further positive factors on the demand side, long - term contract traders are more willing to sell. However, the tight inventory of methanol enterprises in inland areas, especially in production regions, will provide some support for prices. It is expected that the inland market will show a weakening and oscillating trend. In ports, the significant fluctuations of coking coal and coke have had a negative impact on the methanol futures and spot markets. The positive factors supporting the market have reversed. With the expected continuous increase in port inventory and the lack of demand from major downstream industries, the port market is expected to remain in an oscillating state, waiting for positive guidance from policies and news [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - In a bearish macro - environment and with slightly weakening supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is predicted to have a weak oscillation next week, with potential local price declines. Inland markets may weaken and oscillate, while port markets will likely oscillate and await positive news [5]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From August 8th to August 15th, the prices of methanol in different regions showed different trends. In Jiangsu, the price dropped from 2380 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%. In Lunan, the price remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton. In Hebei, the price increased from 2275 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. In Inner Mongolia, the price fluctuated slightly, with a weekly increase of 0.24%. In Fujian, the price dropped from 2395 yuan/ton to 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% [6]. Methanol Basis - From August 8th to August 15th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 2.31%, while the futures price increased by 1.22%. The basis changed from - 3 yuan/ton to - 87 yuan/ton [8]. Methanol Production Profits by Process - For coal - based methanol production, the profit decreased from 265 yuan/ton on August 8th to 248 yuan/ton on August 15th, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. For natural - gas - based methanol production, the profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton. For coke - oven - gas - based methanol production, the profit increased from 460 yuan/ton on August 8th to 470 yuan/ton on August 15th, an increase of 325 yuan/ton (this may be a data error in the report, assuming it should be an increase of 10 yuan/ton) [10]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. In the northwest region, the load decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% [12]. Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From August 8th to August 15th, the CFR China price decreased from 270 dollars/ton to 264 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The CFR Southeast Asia price decreased from 333.5 dollars/ton to 324.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.70%. The price spread between CFR Southeast Asia and CFR China changed from - 63.5 dollars/ton to - 60.5 dollars/ton [15]. Methanol Import Spread - From August 8th to August 15th, the spot price of methanol decreased by 2.31%, the import cost decreased by 2.14%, and the import spread changed from - 4 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton [18]. Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From August 8th to August 15th, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged, with a weekly change of 0.00% [25]. Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased from - 202 yuan/ton to - 214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The load increased from 24.52% last week to 25.42% this week, an increase of 0.90% [26]. - Dimethyl Ether: The production profit decreased from 320 yuan/ton to 284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The load increased from 8.06% last week to 8.88% this week, an increase of 0.82% [28]. - Acetic Acid: The production profit increased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The load increased from 80.48% last week to 82.42% this week, an increase of 1.94% [34]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from - 916 yuan/ton on August 8th to - 740 yuan/ton on August 15th, with an increase of 176 yuan/ton. The MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69%, a decrease of 0.15% [38]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 51.08 to 56.33, an increase of 5.25. In the South China port, the inventory increased from 29.25 to 32.78, an increase of 3.53 [39]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From August 8th to August 15th, the number of warehouse receipts increased from 8688 to 10968, a growth of 26.24%. The effective forecast decreased from 1100 to 0, a decrease of 100.00% [43]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol enterprises are in the process of maintenance or have maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (100,000 - ton annual capacity, coke - oven gas as raw material) started maintenance in early November 2024 and the end date is to be determined; Qinghai Zhonghao (600,000 - ton annual capacity, natural gas as raw material) has been under maintenance from October 23, 2024, to the end of March 2025 [45]. Overseas Methanol Device Status - Many overseas methanol devices are in different operating states. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, such as Marjan, Kaveh, etc. Some devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally [46]. Olefin Device Status - Some olefin devices and their supporting methanol devices are under maintenance or operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices have been under maintenance since March 15th, expected to last for 45 days. Some devices in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and other regions are operating stably [47].
大越期货甲醇周报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-18 03:22