钢矿周报（8.11-8.15）-20250818

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Last week, steel and ore prices remained in a high - level oscillatory pattern, and the market was unable to break this situation. The marginal effect of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, and market focus returned to fundamentals. The weekly apparent demand for rebar decreased and was lower than the same period last year, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils rebounded, higher than both the same period last year and the average of the past five years. The increase in iron ore port inventory pressured the market, but overall molten iron production increased, arrivals decreased, and raw material prices were firm, providing strong support at the lower end. In the future, policies remain the key to the market trend. Before the policies are clear, no trending market is expected, and it is advisable to maintain a high - level oscillatory mindset [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - One - week Data Changes: PB powder price rose from 770 yuan/wet ton to 772 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder price increased from 809 yuan/wet ton to 810 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit rose from - 11.36 yuan/wet ton to - 10.49 yuan/wet ton, and Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 6.31 yuan/wet ton to 7.33 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 122.8 tons to 1365.6 tons, while Brazilian shipments to China increased by 104.7 tons to 847.4 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 114.3 tons to 14381.57 tons, arrivals decreased by 50.8 tons to 2571.6 tons, and port clearance volume increased by 10.35 tons to 346.8 tons. Iron ore port trading volume increased by 35.9 tons to 105.6 tons, daily average molten iron production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 65.8% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - One - week Data Changes: Shanghai rebar price dropped from 3340 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, while Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3450 yuan/ton to 3460 yuan/ton. Blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, and electric furnace operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39%. Rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 151 yuan/ton, and rebar electric furnace profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton. Rebar weekly output decreased by 0.73 tons to 220.45 tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output increased by 0.7 tons to 315.59 tons. Rebar weekly social inventory increased by 26.45 tons to 414.93 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory decreased by 1.26 tons to 277.49 tons. Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased by 4.06 tons to 172.26 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 79.98 tons. Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased by 20.85 tons to 189.94 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption increased by 8.64 tons to 314.85 tons, and building material trading volume increased by 11408 tons to 105050 tons [35][37]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Operating Rates: Blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and electric furnace operating rate increased [35]. - Output: Rebar weekly output decreased slightly, while hot - rolled coil weekly output increased slightly [35]. - Profit: Steel product profits generally decreased, including rebar blast furnace profit, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit, and rebar electric furnace profit [35]. - Inventory: Rebar social and enterprise inventories increased, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly and enterprise inventory increased [37]. - Apparent Consumption: Rebar apparent consumption decreased, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased [37].