棉花周报（8.11-8.15）-20250818

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report (8.11 - 8.15) - Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - This week, cotton prices rebounded, with the 01 contract reclaiming the 14,000 mark. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak has strengthened market expectations. Unless initial orders are scarce, short - term trends are likely to be strong, though a rise - then - fall scenario is possible [4]. - The USDA's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should be watched for its battle at the 14,000 mark. If it stabilizes above 14,000, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, if it drops below 14,000, the subsequent trend will be weak [5]. - Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year. Bearish factors are the postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [6]. Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices rebounded, with the 01 contract back above 14,000. The ICAC's August report shows 25/26 annual production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons. The USDA's August report indicates 25/26 annual production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, an 82.1% year - on - year decrease, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 25/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. 2. Daily Hints - The USDA's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should be watched for its battle at the 14,000 mark. If it stabilizes above 14,000, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, if it drops below 14,000, the subsequent trend will be weak [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Bullish factors: Reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year. Bearish factors: Postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: For 2024/25, production in China decreased by 10.9 tons year - on - year, India decreased by 10.8 tons, Brazil increased by 27.3 tons, etc. Consumption in China decreased by 10.9 tons year - on - year, Pakistan increased by 2.2 tons, etc. [11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [13]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast: For 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [15]. 5. Position Data - No position data provided in the report