大越期货燃料油周报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, international crude oil trended downward, and fuel oil prices mostly fluctuated lower. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,709 yuan/ton, down 2.06% for the week, while low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,484 yuan/ton, up 0.87% for the week [5]. - Ample supply continues to suppress the fundamental of the low - sulfur fuel oil market. Traders expect a surge in Western arbitrage cargoes to boost inventories in Singapore. Due to the short - term inventory increase expectation, the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has fallen to the lowest discount level in more than four months. Despite the continuous closure of the arbitrage window for compliant 0.5% sulfur marine fuel from Northwest Europe to Singapore, low - sulfur blending components from the market west of Suez still flow in continuously. Meanwhile, weak downstream demand will continue to suppress the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, although the immediate supply is sufficient and the seasonal public demand weakens, which continues to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market, the premium of downstream high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is boosted by stable demand and moderate shipping schedules. Additionally, the expected supply reduction from September may support the market [5]. - Next week, international crude oil prices may have room to fluctuate higher, and Singapore fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly following the market. Operationally, trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,650 - 2,800 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,400 - 3,550 range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints - International crude oil and fuel oil price trends last week, and price changes of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [5]. - Analysis of supply, demand, and price trends of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets, and trading suggestions for next week [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,823, the current value is 2,730, down 93 or 3.29%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,540, the current value is 3,465, down 76 or 2.14% [6]. - Spot prices: Different types of fuel oils in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed small price changes, with increases or decreases ranging from - 0.19% to 0.40% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Charts show Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 13 shows changes in inventory levels and increases or decreases [12]. - Charts show Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends [13][15]. 3.5 Spread Data - A chart shows the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures [17].