橡胶策略周报：回落做多-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market continued to rise this week with a good long - position pattern. The fundamentals of natural rubber are bullish. Although the downstream tire operating rate and finished - product inventory are not ideal, the decline of the visible inventory in Qingdao and the firm raw material prices in the producing areas provide support. Considering the upcoming traditional consumption peak season and the absence of new macro - level negatives, the market is expected to enter a seasonally bullish trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and buy on dips [2][3][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - The prices of RU2601, NR2510, and BR2509 futures contracts all increased this week. RU2601 rose by 2.28%, NR2510 by 1.97%, and BR2509 by 2.61%. The market continued to recover, with a good long - position pattern. The fundamentals are bullish, and the bullish pattern is expected to continue [3]. 3.2 Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned full - latex rubber with 9% tax was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,240 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week [4]. 3.3 Inventory Situation Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 2,859 tons to 213,188 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 3,650 tons to 179,930 tons [5]. 3.4 Market Structure - The basis weakened this week because the futures price increased more [6]. 3.5 Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market continued to rise this week with a good long - position pattern. - The raw material prices in Thailand all increased this week, with the largest increase in cup rubber. - The operating rates of tire enterprises varied. The operating rate of all - steel tires increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. The inventories of both semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are bullish. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and buy on dips [7][8].