贵金属日评-20250818

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Due to the US July PPI exceeding market expectations and officials' statements, market expectations for a 50BP Fed rate cut in September have cooled. London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz. Trump's new policies boost gold's safe - haven demand. Gold volatility is rising, and the medium - term upward trend remains good. It may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz before rising again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz. Uncertainty in international trade has decreased, but currency system restructuring and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. Speculative funds entered the silver and platinum markets in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86. The long - term bull market in gold is supported by currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market by economic weakness and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also mean high volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz. Central bank easing may support silver prices in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling [5]. Group 4: Section Summaries Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - Intraday Quotes: London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz due to PPI data and officials' statements. Trump's policies boost gold's safe - haven demand [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Quotes: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.63, down 0.36%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9222, down 0.89%; Gold T + D closed at 773.09, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9188, down 0.93% [5]. - Medium - term Quotes: London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz since late April. International trade uncertainty has decreased, but currency system restructuring and rate - cut expectations support the price. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86 [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, dispelling expectations of a 50BP rate cut in September [17]. - US Treasury Secretary said conditions are favorable for a 25BP rate cut first and then acceleration. Some Fed officials said a 50BP rate cut in September does not match the current economic situation [17]. - Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, and Putin praised US efforts and proposed a nuclear arms control agreement [17]