Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 15, rebar and hot-rolled coil futures contracts 2510 explored lower and then rebounded. The steel futures are expected to experience a phased decline under pressure after the coking coal and coke futures reach their second peak, with a relatively small callback space but a potentially longer callback time compared to late July and early August, and are currently treated with a weakening oscillation trend [7][11] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On August 15, most rebar spot markets and some hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price declines. The prices of rebar in Chongqing, Xi'an, Changchun, Harbin, Kunming, and Shenyang dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, while those in Shanghai, Lanzhou, and Urumqi remained stable, and other major rebar markets saw price drops of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coils in Wuxi, Jinan, Changsha, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2510 contract continued to decline after a dead cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract also showed a dead cross. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts have been expanding for three consecutive trading days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to limit or halt production from August 16 to September 3 based on weather conditions. On August 12, some coking enterprises in Shandong received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions, requiring coking enterprises to limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16 to early September. - Fundamentals: In the short term, the reduction in steel mill production has been disproven. The weekly output of the five major steel products has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products has accelerated, and their weekly apparent demand has continued to decline to a new low since early March. - Raw material market: Port iron ore inventories have increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills have returned to 21 days. The output of independent coking enterprises continues to rise, continuing the steady resumption of production rhythm since mid-July. The sixth round of price increases for coke spot has been implemented, and profits have turned positive after 12 weeks. The tender price of Mongolian coal has declined, and the Dalian Commodity Exchange has taken cooling measures for coking coal futures again. - Overall: It is expected that after the coking coal and coke futures reach their second peak, the steel futures may experience a phased decline under pressure due to the less-than-expected improvement in fundamentals. Currently, the callback space seems relatively small, but the callback time is expected to be longer than that at the end of July and early August, and it is temporarily treated as a weakening oscillation trend [10][11] 2. Industry News - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. At the end of July, the floor area of commercial housing for sale was 764.86 million square meters, a decrease of 4.62 million square meters compared to the end of June. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 572.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new low since December last year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in July were 387.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, matching the previous low set in December last year. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new low since October 2020 [12] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%; pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; steel output was 122.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. From January to July, China's crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; steel output was 860.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [12] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, the floor area of newly built commercial housing in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing remained flat, Shanghai increased by 0.3%, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. The floor area of newly built commercial housing in second - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. The floor area of newly built commercial housing in third - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the same decline as the previous month. In July, the floor area of second - hand housing in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.1%, 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.9% respectively. The floor area of second - hand housing in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [13] - The People's Bank of China announced on August 14 that to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15 through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method for a term of 6 months (182 days). There were 400 billion yuan of 3 - month and 50 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases maturing in the same month. After the People's Bank of China conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase on August 8 and will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase on the 15th, as of the 15th, the People's Bank of China has conducted an excess renewal of outright reverse repurchases totaling 300 billion yuan in August. Wang Qing, the chief macro - analyst at Orient Jincheng, believes that the People's Bank of China's outright reverse repurchase operation helps to inject medium - term liquidity and signals the continuous intensification of quantitative monetary policy tools [13] - China Iron and Steel Association data shows that in early August, the social inventory of the five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons, or 2.3%; an increase of 1.44 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, or 21.9%; and a decrease of 2.18 million tons compared to the same period last year, or 21.4% [13] - According to China Iron and Steel Association statistics, in early August, key steel enterprises produced a total of 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month. In early August, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons compared to the previous ten - day period, or 2.0%; an increase of 2.7 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, or 21.8%; basically the same as the same ten - day period last month; a decrease of 830,000 tons compared to the same ten - day period last year, or 5.2%; and a decrease of 980,000 tons compared to the same ten - day period the year before last, or 6.1% [13] - As of August 15, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.67 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to the same period last week, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the same period last month, and an increase of 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year [13] - Xinjiang Baodi Mining Co., Ltd. disclosed its semi - annual report for 2025. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 721 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.65%, while the total profit decreased by 36.19% year - on - year to 135 million yuan [13] - On August 13, 2025, the Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an announcement, making a positive final ruling on the fourth sunset review of anti - dumping duties on carbon steel pipe fittings originating from China, deciding to continue to impose an anti - dumping duty of $1.05 per kilogram on the涉案 products. The measure has been in effect since August 5, 2024, for a period of five years. The涉案 products are carbon steel pipe fittings with an outer diameter of 0.5 - 16 inches (inclusive), including elbows, tees, reducers, and caps, covering products under the TIGIE tariff number 7307.93.01 [13][14] - On August 13, 2025, the Japanese Ministry of Finance issued an announcement, deciding to initiate an anti - dumping investigation into hot - dipped galvanized steel strips and sheets originating from China and South Korea at the request of Japanese domestic manufacturers on April 28, 2025 [14] - The European Union recently stated that it hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions against Russia next month to continue to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Russia - Ukraine conflict. EU Commission spokesperson Arianna Podesta detailed the timeline for the next round of measures against Russia at a daily press conference in Brussels on Thursday but did not disclose the specific content of the plan. The EU approved a series of measures in July [14] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and the October contracts [15][17][21]
建信期货钢材日评-20250818
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-18 05:09