永安期货有色早报-20250818

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1] - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up is expected in August [2] - Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. In the short term, it shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and in the long - term, a short - position configuration is recommended. The internal - external positive spread can be held, and attention can be paid to the positive spread opportunity between months [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is average, and attention can be continued to be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, it follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [12] - Lead prices fluctuate this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a low - level fluctuation next week [15] - Tin prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices lightly; in the long - term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [17] - For industrial silicon, in the short term, there is a slight inventory reduction in August, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate at the cycle bottom [18] - Lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support under the current macro - sentiment [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. The downstream order support around 7.8 is verified this week. The spot market trading is okay, and attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in recycled rod production on refined copper consumption [1] Aluminum - Supply increases slightly, demand is in the off - season in August with a possible improvement later. Aluminum exports improve, but photovoltaic and overseas demand decline. An inventory build - up is expected in August [2] Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC has difficulty rising, and imported TC increases. The smelting increment is further realized in August. Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a short - term supply shortage. Stocks: Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas L inventory decreases rapidly [5] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand: It is weak overall, and the premium is stable recently. Inventory: Domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged [9] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills cut production passively. Demand: It is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking increases due to the macro - atmosphere. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decrease slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged [12] Lead - Supply: Scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead production is at a low level due to high costs. Demand: Battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market fails to reach the peak - season level. Inventory: Exchange inventory reaches a historical high of 70,000 tons [15] Tin - Supply: Domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August. Overseas, there are signals of复产, but the specific quantity needs to be observed. Demand: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. Inventory: Domestic inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a risk of short - squeeze [17] Industrial Silicon - Production: Xinjiang's leading enterprises' production recovery is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production increases slightly. Supply - demand: In August, there is a slight inventory reduction, and future supply - demand depends on the production recovery of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market: Affected by factors such as inventory reduction data, the market is strong. Supply - demand: Upstream enterprises are willing to sell, downstream procurement is for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trader transactions are more active [19]