建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250818

Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Key Points 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The current egg market is under significant supply pressure, with the spot price in the peak season starting late and experiencing a large - scale correction. The near - month futures contracts are under downward pressure, and the overall sentiment in the futures market is extremely low. The large - scale decline in the near - month 09 contract is due to the weak spot market and the extrusion of the premium. In the short term, the near - month contracts may still be bearish, and the opportunity for band long positions faces greater risks. If the low egg price is reflected in the subsequent replenishment data, the fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The 09 contract of eggs decreased by 0.84%, the 2510 contract increased by 0.16%, and the 2511 contract decreased by 0.45%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Analysis: The peak season of egg prices started late this year, and the market pressure emerged in late July. The current correction is larger than in previous years, indicating significant supply pressure. The continuous decline of the near - month contracts is due to the loosening of the peak - season price increase logic. The 09 contract has reached a record low, and the futures market sentiment is extremely low. In the future, it is necessary to focus on whether the increase in recent culling can drive up the spot price. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be bearish, and the opportunity for band long positions has high risks. The fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg price affects subsequent replenishment [8] 3.2 Industry News - In - laying Hens Inventory: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, showing an upward trend for 7 consecutive months [9] - Chick Hatchlings: The monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, a decrease compared with June and the same period in 2024. It is a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past 8 years. The low breeding profit in the past two months has begun to change farmers' mentality of expanding production capacity, and the year - on - year decrease in the replenishment volume in July is the first this year [9][10] - Chicken Culling: In the first three weeks as of August 14, the national chicken culling volume showed a downward trend, and the decline rate was higher than the seasonal average. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from last week and 1 day later than last month [10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the egg 09 - 10 contracts, the average price in the main producing areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, the monthly inventory of in - laying hens in China, and the egg - chicken breeding profit, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [12][13][17]