宏观周报：关注降息周期中受益的资产-20250818

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - US CPI data for July showed a 0.2% month-on-month increase, matching expectations, while year-on-year growth was 2.7%, lower than expected[29] - China's new RMB loans in July recorded a negative growth of 500 million RMB, marking the first negative growth in nearly 20 years[29] - Japan's Q2 GDP grew by 1% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by capital expenditure and consumption[6] Group 2: Market Performance - Major US stock indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.94% and the Nasdaq up 0.81% over the past week[8] - The MSCI Europe index rose by 1.8%, supported by manufacturing data, while the German DAX and French CAC40 also saw gains[6] - Emerging markets showed strong performance, with the Vietnam VN30 index up 3.13% and the Russian RTS index up 2.68%[8] Group 3: Interest Rates and Inflation - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.32%, while the Chinese 10-year yield increased to 1.76%[9] - The PPI for July in the US increased by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%[29] - The overall financial conditions in the US remain loose, with a decline in the economic surprise index[12] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In a rate-cutting cycle, sectors that typically benefit include healthcare, utilities, and consumer discretionary, with historical performance showing healthcare averaging over 17% gains[51] - Gold is favored in a declining interest rate environment, with a preference order of gold > silver > copper based on historical performance[54] - The report suggests that the performance of equity markets during rate cuts is contingent on whether the economy enters a recession, with historical data indicating mixed outcomes[46]