集运早报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies. This is because the market pattern in September is loose, the subsequent driving forces continue to weaken, the current price of the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and there is still room for decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by driving forces, and due to low positions, they are greatly influenced by macro and capital behaviors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - Contract Prices: EC2508 is 2083.8, EC2512 is 1763.0, EC2510 is 1373.6, EC2602 is 1530.1, EC2604 is 1332.0, and EC2606 is 1487.5. The price changes of EC2510, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 2.30%, 0.57%, - 0.22%, and - 0.50% respectively [2]. - Trading Volumes and Open Interests: The trading volume of EC2508 is 31099, and the open interest is 2506 with a change of - 1839. The open interests of EC2512, EC2510, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 11324, 54859, 4438, 5549, and 822 respectively, with changes of 0, 193, 14, 90, and - 13 respectively [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 are 710.2, - 389.4, and 232.9 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 14.2, - 25.6, and 31.0 respectively [2]. Shipping Indexes - SCHIS: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/8/11, the current value is 2235.48, with a month - on - month change of - 2.71% and a week - on - week change of - 0.81% [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1820 dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month change of - 7.19% and a week - on - week change of - 4.39% [2]. - CCFI: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1790.47 points, with a month - on - month change of - 0.48% and a week - on - week change of 0.53% [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1188.69 points, with a month - on - month change of - 5.49% and a week - on - week change of - 8.37% [2]. Downstream Booking and Market Fundamentals - Booking Situation: Downstream is currently booking space for the second half of August (week34 - 35). The average price of week34 is 2850 dollars (2000 points), and the current average quote of week35 is 2625 dollars (1840 points). The PA alliance quotes 2500 dollars, MSK quotes 2300 dollars, and the OA alliance quotes 2700 - 2800 dollars [2][3]. - Receiving Situation: In week33, MSK had better receiving, OA was average, and PA was poor. In week34, receiving became significantly weaker, and some shipping companies faced pressure in taking orders [2]. - Capacity Situation: The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as cancellations, they are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU respectively [2].