合成橡胶产业日报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost recently supports the supply price of butadiene rubber. The previously overhauled devices have not resumed stable production, and the inventory level continues to decline. Some devices are expected to restart this week, and domestic supply may increase significantly. Affected by the downstream's cautious sentiment and production - sales pressure, downstream procurement may be cautious, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly last week. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires increased, and there is still room for a slight increase as the overhauled enterprises resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprise production control will continue, dragging down the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term forecast for the br2510 contract is in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 17,454, down 2,902. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions has decreased. The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 82.5 dollars/barrel, down 0.99 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 62.8 dollars/barrel, down 1.16 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,080 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars/ton; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,010 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, up 0.42 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, down 0.07 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,400 tons, up 5,700 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, up 0.65 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, up 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, down 3.65 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, down 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, down 300 tons [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2] 5. Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, or - 3.18%. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points. In July 2025, China's butadiene rubber output was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2] 6. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]