瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic mines remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the port inventory of domestic nickel ore has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. [3] - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity was still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. [3] - On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the plants have increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to climb, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the increase in nickel prices has weakened procurement demand, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and domestic inventory has remained stable, while overseas LME inventory has increased. [3] - Technically, the price has fallen while the position has increased, indicating a divergence between bulls and bears. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan; the spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,195 US dollars/ton, an increase of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 62,507 lots, a decrease of 3,820 lots. [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,524 lots, a decrease of 2,845 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons. [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons. [3] - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 23,051 tons, an increase of 910 tons. [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan. [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 410 yuan. [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 207.88 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.35 US dollars. [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons. [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193.2 million tons. [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 169.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons. [3] 6. Industry News - In July in China, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down to 3.7%, and the total retail sales of automobiles decreased year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, with the automobile and electronics industries leading, while the output of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, and private investment declined. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities in China showed an enlarged decline both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline of housing prices in all tiers narrowed. [3] - In the United States, retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month in July, which was the second consecutive month of growth but lower than the previous value. The consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan unexpectedly declined in August, and both short - term and long - term inflation expectations climbed. The retail sales in the United States showed a significant increase, with a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the June data was revised up to 0.9%. [3]