瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250818
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-18 09:42
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2509 dropped and then rebounded, closing at 7,230 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the domestic market has no new shutdown devices, and the impact of restarted and capacity - increased devices is expanding, with an expected increase in supply. The downstream industry has both shutdown and restarted devices, and the terminal demand lacks positive factors, so the styrene consumption is difficult to grow significantly. The supply - stronger - than - demand situation in the spot market is expected to continue, and the inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the supply - stronger - than - demand situation of crude oil continues, and the international oil price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main contract of styrene is about to change. EB2509 is dominated by the delivery logic, with a short - term fluctuation range expected between 7,150 - 7,360 yuan/ton; EB2510 is supported by the peak season in September and maintenance expectations, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 7,130 yuan/ton and the pressure around 7,380 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active styrene contract is 7,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 148,790, down 79; the buying volume of the top 20 positions is 317,145 hands, up 15,287 hands; the 10 - month contract closing price is 7,248 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the position volume of the active contract is 167,851 hands, down 16,914 hands; the net buying volume of the top 20 positions is - 4,659 hands, down 17,718 hands; the selling volume of the top 20 positions is 334,863 hands, up 19,946 hands; the total number of warehouse receipts is 737 hands, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of styrene is 7,596 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea middle - price is 887 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China middle - price is 897 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northeast region is 7,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the South China region is 7,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in the North China region is 7,325 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in the East China region is 7,280 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene is 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price is 821 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price is 856.5 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton; the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF) is 744.67 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf is 267 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; the FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam is 719 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market is 6,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price in the East China market is 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price in the North China market is 6,130 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton; the total styrene operating rate is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the national styrene inventory is 208,717 tons, down 2,738 tons [2] 产业情况 - The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port is 148,800 tons, down 10,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port is 69,500 tons, up 3,000 tons [2] 下游情况 - The operating rate of EPS is 58.08%, up 14.41%; the operating rate of ABS is 71.1%, unchanged; the operating rate of PS is 56.4%, up 1.4%; the operating rate of UPR is 32%, up 2%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber is 72.1%, down 1.25% [2] Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the overall output of Chinese styrene plants was 369,100 tons, a 2.76% increase from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 78.18%, a 0.45% increase from the previous period. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 263,200 tons, a 10.54% increase from the previous week. As of August 14th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 208,700 tons, a 1.29% decrease from the previous period [2]