瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bullish, but in the domestic market, high oil - mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation suppress prices. However, uncertainties in fourth - quarter purchases, low near - month rapeseed arrivals, and peak aquaculture season support the market. Although soybean meal substitution weakens demand expectations, the market still maintains a bullish outlook despite increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, in the international market, supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong palm oil export data from Malaysia provide upward momentum. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain prices. But low oil - mill operating rates reduce output pressure, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. The market is still recommended to be participated in with a bullish approach despite increased volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9826 yuan/ton (up 69 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2590 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) is 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.3 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed (active contract) is 4966 yuan/ton (down 68 yuan) [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 month spread is 146 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 month spread is 86 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan) [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions are 290,638 lots (down 5,858 lots), rapeseed meal main - contract positions are 434,330 lots (down 14,280 lots). Rapeseed oil's top 20 net long positions are 2,808 lots (up 5,092 lots), rapeseed meal's top 20 net long positions are - 5,037 lots (up 12,433 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil has 3,487 receipts (unchanged), rapeseed meal has 9,821 receipts (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9900 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8830 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9570 yuan/ton (up 270 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Averages and others: Average rapeseed oil price is 9965 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), import cost of rapeseed is 8306.78 yuan/ton (up 178.07 yuan), oil - meal ratio is 3.72 (down 0.06), rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 143 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 60 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot spread is 1120 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), rapeseed oil - palm oil spot spread is 600 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread is 420 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume is 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons (up 5 tons), import rapeseed weekly operating rate is 11.94% (down 4.9%), and import rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 11 tons (up 0.35 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons (down 0.65 tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.92 tons (down 0.58 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons (up 0.68 tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5.5 tons (down 0.2 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21 tons (down 1.5 tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 3.47 tons (up 1.77 tons), and rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 2.72 tons (down 0.15 tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons (up 175.6 tons), and edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13.22% (down 14.17%), put option implied volatility is 27.39% (down 1.71%), 20 - day historical volatility is 31.16% (up 6.81%), and 60 - day historical volatility is 21.29% (up 2.19%). Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13.52% (down 0.48%), put option implied volatility is 13.5% (down 0.53%), 20 - day historical volatility is 18.14% (up 0.46%), and 60 - day historical volatility is 14.58% (up 0.12%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed higher on August 15, with the most actively traded November contract up 6.40 Canadian dollars to 660.90 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract up 5.70 Canadian dollars to 672.70 Canadian dollars/ton. The market has stabilized after a sharp decline earlier in the week [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is estimated at 80.1 million acres (down from 82.5 million acres in July), yield is 53.6 bushels/acre (higher than expected and July's estimate), production is estimated at 4.292 billion bushels (down from 4.335 billion bushels in July), and ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels (down 20 million bushels, the lowest in three years) [2].