Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the ru2601 contract is to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,200, and for the nr2510 contract, it is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000. As maintenance - affected enterprises resume operations, there is still a small upward space for production capacity utilization, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprises' production control will continue, which will limit the increase in overall production capacity utilization [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15,820 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 1,035 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 133,455 lots, down 1,052 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 58,494 lots, up 710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,125 lots, down 1,030 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,931 lots, down 477 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 179,590 tons, down 340 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 46,469 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 920 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,918 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 268 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 63.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 59.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 49.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 215.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 33.2 US dollars/ton, down 8.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.81%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.88%, up 0.23 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.19%, up 0.73 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.19%, up 0.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 17th to August 23rd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. The red areas south of the equator are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and most other areas have medium rainfall, also reducing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decrease of 0.87%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.64 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.12 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250818
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-18 09:52