白糖产业周报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Zhengzhou sugar price rose, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The previously opened window for out - of - quota import profit is expected to increase imports, suppressing the rebound of the 09 contract. The main funds flowed into the 01 contract, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to shrink due to the domestic production cut expectation. In the overseas market, due to the ongoing production cut in Brazil, the global supply is tight in the short term, providing strong support for the external market price, but the expected increase in production in India and Thailand prevents the raw sugar price from rising unilaterally. In the short term, the SR2509 contract is weak, the SR2601 contract is strong, and there is a possibility that the 9 - 1 spread will continue to narrow [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Domestic Market: The spot price in Nanning was 6010 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it was 5780 - 5940 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase [3]. - International Market: In the first week of August, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 182,300 tons, a 2% increase compared to August of the previous year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data showed that in late July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, and produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease, with a sugar - making ratio of 54.1% (50.32% in the same period last year). As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area reached 5.731 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.568 million hectares in the same period last year [4][9]. Sugar Futures and Spot Price and Spread - Futures Price and Spread: On August 18, 2025, the closing prices of SR01, SR03, SR05, SR07, SR09, and SR11 were 5664, 5640, 5622, 5616, 5740, and 5667 respectively, all with a 0% change. The spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc. are also provided [6]. - Spot Price and Spread: On August 15, 2025, the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, etc. and their price differences are presented. For example, the price in Nanning was 5960 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase [6]. Sugar Weekly Basis and Import Price Change - Basis: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different SR contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their changes are given. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 316, a 61 - yuan decrease [7][10]. - Import Price Change: The quota - within and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their weekly changes are shown. For example, the quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561 yuan/ton, a 195 - yuan increase [10].