Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a game between cost support and export restrictions. Lacking a breakthrough driver, it is expected to continue range - bound trading [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental and Views - Supply - related: Device overhauls increased, weekly production decreased by 26,000 tons compared to the previous week, and factory inventory decreased to 888,000 tons, slightly alleviating supply pressure [4]. - Cost - related: Coal prices stabilized and rose slightly. Coupled with the potential impact of the old - device inspection policy, the cost line of the fixed - bed process supported the price [4]. - Demand - related: In August, it is the gap period between the end of top - dressing and autumn fertilizer preparation. Agricultural demand support is limited, and the compound fertilizer operation rate is only 41.5%. Industrial demand is weak [4]. - Export - related: The second quota is unclear, and the international price is lower than the domestic price limit (440 - 445 US dollars/ton), hindering actual export orders [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - Inventory: There are data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, and compound fertilizer inventory [7][8][38]. - Futures: Data on the position volume, trading volume, total number of warehouse receipts, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts of the urea futures main contract are presented [10][12][13][15]. - Price: There are data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, and the seasonal price differences of urea 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [17][18][20][21][23][25][27]. - Cost and Profit: Data on the production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and coal - water slurry gasification processes, as well as the production cost, profit, and production cost in Shandong of compound fertilizer are provided [28][30][31][32][40][46]. - Production and Operation Rate: There are data on the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, urea capacity utilization rate, total daily urea production, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and power coal port inventory [33][35][37][38][47]. - International Price: Data on the FOB prices of small - sized urea in China and the Middle East are presented [42][43]. - Power Coal: Data on the spot price of power coal are provided [44].
尿素产业链周报-20250818
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-18 10:19