国债期货日报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially with increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. In this context, the "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect may intensify, and in the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on opportunities for the expansion of term spreads brought about by curve steepening [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volumes: T主力收盘价108.015, down 0.29%; TF主力收盘价105.455, down 0.21%; TS主力收盘价102.304, down 0.04%; TL主力收盘价116.090, down 1.33%. All contract volumes increased, with T主力成交量 at 20962, TF主力成交量 at 14257, TS主力成交量 at 5008, and TL主力成交量 at 47329 [2]. - Futures Spreads: Most spreads showed changes, such as TL2512 - 2509价差 down 0.13 to - 0.60, T09 - TL09价差 up 1.11 to - 8.08 [2]. - Futures Positions: T主力持仓量 decreased by 12157 to 107322; TF主力持仓量 increased by 357 to 86134; TS主力持仓量 decreased by 4546 to 61412; TL主力持仓量 decreased by 7726 to 61613. The net positions of the top 20 traders also had various changes [2]. 3.2 CTD Bond Data The net prices of the top two CTD bonds all decreased, for example, 220010.IB(6y) decreased by 0.3457 to 106.5921, and 250007.IB(6y) decreased by 0.2601 to 99.0955 [2]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields The yields of treasury bond active bonds increased, with the 1 - year yield up 0.20bp to 1.3600%, the 5 - year yield up 1.75bp to 1.5825%, the 7 - year yield up 1.20bp to 1.6850%, and the 10 - year yield up 1.30bp to 1.7450% [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates All short - term interest rates increased, such as the silver - pledged overnight rate up 6.76bp to 1.4776%, the Shibor overnight rate up 3.80bp to 1.4360%, etc. [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates The 1 - year LPR rate remained at 3.00%, and the 5 - year LPR rate remained at 3.5% [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 2665 billion, the maturity scale was 1120 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Monetary Policy: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain liquidity, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and support key areas through structural monetary policy tools [2]. - Economic Data: In July, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12% [2]. - Housing Prices: In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The number of cities with month - on - month increases in new - home prices decreased, and only one city had a month - on - month increase in second - hand home prices [2]. 3.8 Key Events to Watch - August 20, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value. - August 21, 02:00: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [3].