农产品早报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, corn prices will continue to fluctuate with an upper limit and a lower support. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under pressure until domestic consumption improves or there is a reluctance to sell in production areas [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, the starch market will continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Domestically, Zheng sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and there is significant upward pressure on the futures price due to the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported sugar [6]. - Cotton: It has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the price decline is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [9]. - Eggs: Due to supply - demand imbalance, egg prices declined in early August. Attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling and the release of cold - stored eggs [12]. - Apples: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [14]. - Pigs: There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices are at a premium. Short - term spot prices are weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to factors such as the pace of slaughter, weather, and policies [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From August 12 - 18, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while in Jinzhou it decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and in Weifang it increased by 40 yuan/ton. For starch, the prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [2]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, corn prices will fluctuate, and starch prices will be weakly fluctuating. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to decline, and a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From August 12 - 18, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained unchanged, while in Kunming it decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 172 [6]. - Market Analysis: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Domestically, there is significant upward pressure on the futures price due to the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported sugar [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From August 12 - 18, the price of 3128 cotton remained unchanged, and the price of imported M - grade US cotton decreased slightly. The spot price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50 yuan/ton [9]. - Market Analysis: Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the price decline is limited [9]. Eggs - Price Data: From August 12 - 18, egg prices in various production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.22 yuan in Hebei and Liaoning. The basis decreased by 30 [12]. - Market Analysis: Due to supply - demand imbalance, egg prices declined in early August. Attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling and the release of cold - stored eggs [12]. Apples - Price Data: From August 12 - 18, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national apple inventory decreased by 76,000 tons [13][14]. - Market Analysis: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [14]. Pigs - Price Data: From August 12 - 18, pig prices in various production areas decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 25 [14]. - Market Analysis: There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices are at a premium. Short - term spot prices are weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to factors such as the pace of slaughter, weather, and policies [14].