芳烃橡胶早报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA开工 is rising, polyester load is slightly increasing, inventory is accumulating, and basis is weak. The subsequent supply - demand may improve, and it's advisable to focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] - For MEG, the near - term domestic device restarts are postponed, and overseas there are unexpected maintenance. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term, and it's advisable to focus on the satellite restart progress [2] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term start - up is slightly increasing, and downstream demand is improving. Considering the low processing margins on the disk, it's advisable to focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price has rebounded. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2] - For styrene, price data for related products are provided, but no clear overall view is given Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and data: PTA spot daily average basis is 2509(-11), and the change in relevant data from August 12 - 18 shows fluctuations. For example, the PX CFR price has changed by 0.7, and the PTA internal - market spot price has changed in its own range [2] - Device changes: Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance [2] - Market situation: Near - term TA开工 is rising, polyester load is slightly increasing, inventory is accumulating, basis is weak, and spot processing margins are still low. PX domestic开工 is slightly rising, overseas maintenance and restart co - exist, PXN is strengthening, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread is slightly rising [2] - Outlook: TA additional maintenance is increasing due to low processing margins. The filament sales are weak, but there will be no further short - term production cuts. The bottle - chip inventory is decreasing under low start - up. Overall, polyester开工 is expected to stabilize and has upward potential, and supply - demand may improve [2] MEG - Price and data: MEG spot basis is around 09(+87), and the change in relevant data from August 12 - 18 shows that some prices have decreased, such as the MEG external - market price which has dropped by 2 [2] - Device changes: Xinjiang Tianying's 15 - thousand - ton device has restarted [2] - Market situation: Near - term domestic device restarts are postponed, and overseas there are unexpected maintenance. The port inventory is expected to accumulate due to increased arrivals and stable shipments. Downstream stocking levels are rising, basis is stable, and oil - based profits have recovered [2] - Outlook: EG supply has postponed restarts and overseas unexpected maintenance. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The long - term is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, depending on the satellite restart progress [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and data: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber on August 12 was 6570, and there were slight price changes in subsequent days. The daily change on August 18 shows that some prices remained unchanged, and some profits increased [2] - Device changes: Ningbo Dafa's technical - reform device has resumed operation [2] - Market situation: Near - term start - up has slightly increased to 91.1%, sales are stable, and inventory has remained unchanged. Downstream polyester yarn start - up has increased, raw - material stocking has increased, finished - product inventory has decreased, and profits have been maintained [2] - Outlook: As the downstream finished - product inventory decreases, downstream start - up may continue to rise. Although staple - fiber supply may also increase, the overall space is limited. Considering the low processing margins on the disk, focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Price and data: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber on August 12 was 1805, and there were price changes in subsequent days. The daily and weekly changes in various price spreads and related data are also provided [2] - Market situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [2] - Strategy: Wait and see [2] Styrene - Price and data: From August 12 - 18, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 825, while the prices of other related products such as pure benzene and styrene showed different degrees of decline. The daily change on August 18 shows that some prices decreased, and some profits increased [5]