广发期货《有色》日报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, and the actual rate - cut magnitude is uncertain. The extension of the China - US tariff truce releases short - term tariff risks. In the fundamental aspect, it is approaching the traditional peak season, with strong spot premiums, declining domestic social inventories, and improved spot trading after price drops. In the long - term, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The weak US economy caps the upside of copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is also limited. Short - term trading is expected to be range - bound between 78,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price first rose and then fell. Supply - side news initially boosted the price, but later, the price was pressured by factors such as the increase in registered warehouse receipts. In the fundamental aspect, the supply of bauxite is expected to tighten in the short - term, but the alumina market will remain in a slight surplus in the medium - term due to profit - driven capacity recovery and new capacity additions. The price of the main alumina contract is expected to fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,300. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances, demand weakness, and macro uncertainties. The price of the main contract is expected to be between 20,000 - 21,000 [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. The cost is supported by the shortage of scrap aluminum, but the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season and weak orders in the automotive industry. The market is expected to remain range - bound between 19,600 - 20,400, and attention should be paid to changes in scrap aluminum supply and imports [7]. Zinc - Upstream zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and resumption. The zinc ore TC has risen, but the production growth rates of the global and domestic zinc mines in some periods were lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, with low spot premiums and low operating rates in primary processing industries. The low global inventory provides price support. The zinc price is expected to be range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar is expected to resume in the fourth quarter. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation peak and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. The tin price has fallen due to factors such as the strong US dollar. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price is expected to remain high and volatile [14]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - environment shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing the market's expectation of more aggressive easing. The domestic nickel price is mainly oscillating, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The nickel price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000, and attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel price oscillated. The market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - expectation has strengthened slightly. The price of raw materials is stable. The stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound between 12,800 - 13,500, and attention should be paid to policy trends and nickel - iron dynamics [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures price increased significantly. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance. The supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while the demand is showing a positive trend as it enters the peak season. The market is in a state of overall de - stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in a strong range, around 85,000 - 90,000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and consider light - position long - entry on dips [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.32% to 79,180 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 100.37 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.06 [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In July, the electrolytic copper production increased by 3.47% to 117.43 million tons, and the import volume increased by 18.74% to 30.05 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 20,710 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 100.3 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.02 [5]. - Monthly Spread: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data: In July, the alumina production increased by 5.40% to 765.02 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.11% to 372.14 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 4.26% to 58.80 million tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% to 62.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.31% to 26.60 million tons. The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% to 3.52 million tons [7]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.27% to 22,450 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The import loss increased by 212.88 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.05 [11]. - Monthly Spread: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: In July, the refined zinc production increased by 3.03% to 60.28 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 14.13% to 12.92 million tons [11]. Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.30% to 266,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 98 dollars/ton to 63 dollars/ton [14]. - Monthly Spread: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 310 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 9.56% to 1,655 tons [14]. Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.50% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 231 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01 [16]. - Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118,531 yuan/ton [16]. - Fundamental Data: The SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% to 26,194 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.75% to 40,572 tons [16]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.76% to 13,100 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 24.64% to 260 yuan/ton [17]. - Raw Material Price: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.11% to 926 yuan/nickel point [17]. - Fundamental Data: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.85% to 82,700 yuan/ton, and the SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price increased by 1.37% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread increased by 2.22% to 2,300 yuan/ton [20]. - Monthly Spread: The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 180 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamental Data: In July, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and the demand increased by 2.62% to 96,275 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [20].