广发期货《黑色》日报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations. It is necessary to wait for the clarity of peak - season demand. The support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 yuan and 3160 yuan respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading strategy suggests shorting Iron Ore 2601 on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy recommends going long on coking coal and shorting iron ore [3]. Coke Industry - There is still an expectation for the seventh round of coke price hikes. The coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities, but the excessive premium and rising coal prices may have fully exhausted the previous positive expectations [5]. Coking Coal Industry - Considering the pre - parade production restrictions of Hebei steel mills, the molten iron output in August may drop to around 236 tons per day. The speculative strategy suggests taking profits and waiting, and the arbitrage strategy recommends going long on coking coal and shorting iron ore [3][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, and 3450 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts showed mixed changes, with the 05 - contract up 12 yuan to 3314 yuan/ton, the 10 - contract down 1 yuan to 3188 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract up 2 yuan to 3269 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China rose 10 yuan to 3460 yuan/ton, in North China fell 10 yuan to 3420 yuan/ton, and in South China remained unchanged at 3450 yuan/ton. Futures contracts also showed increases [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan to 3368 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 27 yuan to 3192 yuan/ton. Profits for rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.2 to 240.7, and the output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, with growth rates of 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 to 220.5, a decrease of 0.3%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, an increase of 0.2% [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.6 to 1416.0, a 3.0% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 30.5 to 587.2, a 5.5% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8 to 357.5, a 0.2% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.1 to 10.5, a 25.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. Rebar's apparent demand decreased by 20.9 to 189, a 9.9% decrease, while hot - rolled coil's apparent demand increased by 8.2 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different iron ore powders also increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.5 to - 36.5, a 3.9% increase, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 to 20.5, a 6.8% decrease [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The monthly national iron output decreased by 110.5 to 7080.0, a 1.5% decrease [3]. - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase, and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 12.8 to 334.7, a 4.0% increase [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.2 to 13819.27, a 0.1% increase, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 123.1 to 9136.4, a 1.4% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi Grade I wet - quenched coke increased by 52 to 1399, a 3.9% increase, and the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - Grade I wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. Coke futures contracts showed increases [5]. - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. Coking coal futures contracts also showed increases [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase [5]. - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.2% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease [5]. - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5].