大越期货原油早报-20250819

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Short - term geopolitical concerns are falling, and the upward momentum for oil prices in the future is weak. As the peak season is about to end, the pressure on oil prices from fundamentals is increasing. The short - term price of crude oil 2509 is expected to run in the range of 484 - 494, and long - term investors can hold long positions. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental analysis of crude oil 2509: Geopolitical news is neutral; the basis shows that the spot is at par with the futures, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the disk shows a bearish trend; and the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are decreasing, which is bearish [3] - Short - term price range for crude oil 2509 is 484 - 494, and long - term long positions can be held [3] 2. Recent News - The US is trying to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky by the end of August to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5] - Hamas is willing to accept a 60 - day cease - fire proposal to end the Gaza war and secure the release of Israeli hostages, while Israel has not commented officially [5] - Investors expect Fed Chairman Powell to give dovish signals at the Jackson Hole symposium, but there is a risk of disappointment [5] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6] - Bearish factors: Possibility of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6] - Market drivers: Short - term reduction in geopolitical conflicts and increased risk of trade tariff issues; in the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Brent crude oil settlement price rose from 65.85 to 66.60, an increase of 1.14%; WTI crude oil settlement price fell from 62.80 to 62.70, a decrease of 0.16%; SC crude oil settlement price fell from 487.0 to 485.2, a decrease of 0.37%; Oman crude oil settlement price fell from 68.19 to 67.64, a decrease of 0.81% [7] - Spot Market: UK Brent Dtd price fell from 67.98 to 67.53, a decrease of 0.66%; WTI price rose from 62.80 to 63.42, an increase of 0.99%; Oman crude oil price fell from 68.47 to 67.95, a decrease of 0.76%; Shengli crude oil price fell from 64.44 to 64.00, a decrease of 0.68%; Dubai crude oil price fell from 68.41 to 67.90, a decrease of 0.75% [9] - Inventory Data: US API crude oil inventory increased by 151.9 million barrels in the week ending August 8, and EIA inventory increased by 303.6 million barrels in the same period [3] 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of August 12, the net long position of the WTI crude oil fund was 116,742, a decrease of 25,087 from the previous period [18] - Brent Crude Oil: As of August 12, the net long position of the Brent crude oil fund was 206,547, a decrease of 34,430 from the previous period [20]