大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For LLDPE and PP, the expected market trend for today is oscillatory. The "anti - involution" policy - driven price increases have subsided, and the decline in crude oil prices, along with the current demand and inventory situations, all contribute to this expected trend [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but the market has returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices are oscillating downward. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7240 (-10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -94, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.3%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. After the price increase from the "anti - involution" policy subsides, along with the decline in crude oil prices and lower - than - expected agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. - Factors: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and the decline in crude oil prices. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7060 (-40), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 12, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.2%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating. After the price increase from the "anti - involution" policy subsides, along with the decline in crude oil prices, slightly improved downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. - Factors: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and the decline in crude oil prices. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown various trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 18.695 million tons in 2018 to 35.845 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also had different trends. The production capacity increased from 22.455 million tons in 2018 to 44.185 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].