大越期货尿素早报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent urea futures market has been oscillating. After the "anti-involution" sentiment subsided, the trend has returned to the fundamentals. The domestic supply of urea, including daily production and operating rates, remains at a relatively high level, and overall inventory is high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both low, and agricultural demand is weak. The domestic urea market still shows a significant oversupply situation. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1850 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the urea futures will continue to oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Domestic supply has high daily production and operating rates, and overall inventory is high. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, showing significant oversupply. Export profit has declined but remains strong, and export policies are not liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1850 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 96, with a premium/discount ratio of 5.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies are not liberalized beyond expectations, and domestic oversupply is still significant. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - Leverage Factors: International prices are strong, which is a bullish factor. High operating rates and daily production, as well as weak domestic demand, are bearish factors. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Deliverable | 1850 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1754 | 17 | Warehouse Receipts | 3573 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1860 | 0 | Basis | 96 | -17 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.457 million tons | -0.2 | | Henan Spot | 1850 | 28 | UR01 | 1754 | 17 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 0.968 million tons | -5.1 | | FOB China | 2942 | - | UR05 | 1790 | 7 | UR Port Inventory | 0.489 million tons | 4.9 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1731 | 10 | - | - | - | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]