大越期货燃料油早报-20250819

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The market is waiting for more news from the US and Europe regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. In the short term, it will be in a state of stable oscillation. Fuel oil will follow this trend, with FU2509 operating in the range of 2670 - 2730 and LU2510 in the range of 3450 - 3500 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has slightly declined, partly due to concerns about an abundant supply of short - term arbitrage cargoes. However, traders expect the market fundamentals to gradually stabilize as the market shifts to trading September second - half cargoes. For high - sulfur fuel oil, although tight shipping schedules support the downstream bunker market demand, traders are worried that the decline in power generation demand after the Middle - East summer peak may increase the supply pressure in Singapore [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 162 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 75 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - Main Position: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 2. Long - Short Concerns - Positive Factors: There may be an intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market Drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Futures Price Changes: The price of the FU main contract futures decreased by 5 to 2700, a decline of 0.18%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased by 11 to 3459, an increase of 0.32%. The basis of FU decreased by 21 to 162, a decline of 11.24%. The basis of LU decreased by 33 to 75, a decline of 30.84% [5]. - Spot Price Changes: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1 to 486, an increase of 0.21%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 3 to 505, an increase of 0.60%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.18 to 387.97, a decline of 0.05%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1 to 482.5, an increase of 0.21%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.18 to 368.24, a decline of 0.05%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased by 8.84 to 606.32, a decline of 1.44% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: On August 13, the inventory was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months [8].