建信期货生猪日报-20250819

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 2.1 Pig Market - Futures: On the 18th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, closing with a negative line. The highest was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,500 lots to 185,851 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 18th, the national average price of ternary pigs was 13.64 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 2.2 Pig Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weak, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses have increased slightly. On August 18, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 140,400 heads, down 800 heads from the previous day and up 1,400 heads from a week ago [9]. - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly. The slaughter enthusiasm of the breeding side is high, the slaughter progress is fast, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remains high, and there are still secondary fattening pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates within a narrow range [9]. 2.3 Market Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of the breeding side increases, the current slaughter enthusiasm is okay, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply and demand remain relatively loose, and the spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9]. - Futures: Currently, the near - month 2509 contract of futures mainly fluctuates weakly following the spot. In the medium - to - long - term far - month view, the pig supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large. Currently, they are dragged down by the spot and are weakly correcting, but the initiatives for high - quality development against involution, strengthened environmental protection, and the peak demand season are favorable for the medium - to - long - term pig price performance, and the downside space may be relatively limited [9]. 3. Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 4. Data Overview - Profit per head: As of August 15, the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 101 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/head; the profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 52 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 yuan/head [14]. - Piglet price: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15 was 484 yuan/head, a decrease of 33 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - Slaughter volume: In the week of August 15, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 1.6335 million heads, a week - on - week increase of 30,100 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.88%. The average daily slaughter volume of daily slaughter samples was 138,446 heads, an increase of 1,321 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 0.96% [14]. - Planned slaughter volume: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase compared with July [14]. - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 15, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.82 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%, and an increase of 1.65 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.31% [14].