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建信期货锌期货日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-19 01:37

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The core contradiction of abundant zinc ore and refined zinc in the zinc market is more prominent during the off - season of demand, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The zinc market supply remains loose, and the demand is hard to improve substantially as it has not stepped out of the off - season. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the weak fundamental pattern is difficult to resonate with it. The Shanghai zinc has given back its previous gains, and the current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues. The domestic market is driven by the overseas market and is unlikely to fall deeply. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season for demand in the second half of the month, and the callback space of Shanghai zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations as the main trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures Market Quotes: The main contract of Shanghai zinc (2509) closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan, a decline of 0.80%, with reduced volume and positions, and the position was 69,630 lots. The 2510 contract closed at 22,360 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan, a decline of 0.82%, and the position increased by 5,691 lots to 96,755 lots. The 2511 contract closed at 22,360 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan, a decline of 0.84%, and the position decreased by 63,418 lots to 27,646 lots [7] - Fundamentals: The supply of zinc ore is loose, which pushes up the processing fee. The import zinc concentrate index is reported at 82.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the monthly average TC of domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remains stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices year - on - year drive the continuous expansion of smelters' profit margins, and smelters have sufficient production enthusiasm. The domestic refined zinc output in August may increase to 621,500 tons, and the supply side remains abundant. The downstream off - season characteristics are significant. Although there are demand - supporting policies, the weakness is hard to cover in the short term, and the operating load in the primary consumption field is still in a weak range [7] 2. Industry News - August 18, 2025 Transactions: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 22,305 - 22,415 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was traded at 22,385 - 22,525 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was 22,235 - 22,345 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a discount of 20 - 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Honglu - v quoted at par to the 2509 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the high - price brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 60 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8] - Regional Market Conditions: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 22,285 - 22,375 yuan/ton, and the regular brands in Ningbo quoted a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at par to the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,270 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded at 22,310 - 22,420 yuan/ton. 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 22,210 - 22,3320 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 22,950 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22,225 - 22,380 yuan/ton, and the mainstream brands quoted a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot [8][9] 3. Data Overview - Not elaborated in the provided content