Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - East China tertiary rapeseed oil basis prices vary by month: August OI2601+110, September - October OI2601+200, August - September OI601+160 (non - GMO), and East China first - grade rapeseed oil in August is OI2601+180. - East China market soybean oil basis prices also vary: Spot Y2601+80, September Y2601+100, October - November Y2601+160, October - January Y2601+210. - Dongguan 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 [7] - Operation Suggestions: - Palm oil continues to lead the rise. It has a short - term adjustment need according to technical analysis but is considered bullish in the medium term. The export data is positive for the market, with the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 increasing by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month, and Indian import demand may rebound in August. - For rapeseed oil, due to policy - influenced supply reduction, the strategy is to go long until the supply shortage situation is significantly improved. Sporadic purchases cannot fully make up for the supply gap from Canada. - For soybean oil, it is bullish in the long - term due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, possible reduction in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand recovery. It may have short - term corrections [7] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil export data from August 1 - 15: ITS reported an export volume of 724,191 tons, a 16.5% increase from July 1 - 15; AmSpec reported 696,425 tons, a 21.3% increase. Exports to China decreased by 2.83 million tons to 0.88 million tons compared to the same period last month. - CONAB increased the forecast of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 1.6965 billion tons, slightly higher than last month's prediction. The 2025 export volume forecast is 1.0625 billion tons, and the ending inventory is expected to be 3.941 million tons, higher than last month [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include spot prices of East China tertiary rapeseed oil, East China quaternary soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil; basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads; and exchange rates of US dollar to RMB and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit. All data sources are Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][16][18][20][25][26]
建信期货油脂日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-19 01:31