Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show a rise in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and the spot market was active. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted, and attention should be paid to the stimulation of refined copper consumption. In August, a small - scale inventory build - up was expected, but the market might focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and August was a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late August. Aluminum exports improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [3]. - The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC was hard to rise, and imported TC increased. In August, the increase in smelting production was further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. There might be a phased supply shortage. Domestically, social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. Short - term, it was recommended to wait and see; medium - and long - term, a short - position configuration was suggested. Internal - external positive arbitrage could be held, and attention could be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in spreads [6]. - In the nickel market, pure nickel production remained at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained stable. The short - term fundamental situation was average, and the macro - environment was mainly about anti - involution policy games. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [7]. - For stainless steel, some steel mills cut production passively, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with some inventory replenishment due to the macro - environment. Nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamental situation was weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [10]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. On the supply side, scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production was low due to tight scrap batteries and low profits. On the demand side, battery inventory was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. Although there was an improvement in orders in July - August, terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement were weak. It was expected that the lead price would remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [11][13]. - The tin price fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production might decline slightly in July - August, and overseas, there were signals of复产 in Wa State, but the specific quantity needed to be observed. On the demand side, solder demand was limited, and terminal electronic and photovoltaic growth was expected to decline. Domestic inventory increased, and overseas LME inventory was low with a risk of short - squeeze. Short - term, it was recommended to short lightly at high prices; medium - and long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - In the industrial silicon market, the start - up rate of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was 59, and the resumption of production was less than expected. Sichuan and Yunnan's start - up rates increased slightly. In August, there was a small - scale inventory reduction. In the short - term, if either Southwest or Hesheng reached full production, the market would turn to oversupply. In the long - term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in large - scale surplus, and the price was expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - The lithium carbonate market was strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction data and the expected impact of CITIC Guoan's start - up. Upstream lithium salt producers were willing to sell, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs with stronger inventory - replenishment intention, and trading among traders was more active. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price had high upward elasticity and strong downward support [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the premium changed by 150, the scrap - refined copper price difference remained unchanged, the SHFE inventory increased by 938, the SHFE copper warrant increased by 16.47, the spot import profit decreased by 9.08, the three - month import profit decreased by 3.00, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the bill of lading premium decreased by 2, the LME C - 3M decreased by 3, the LME inventory decreased by 200, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 150 [1]. - Market Analysis: The macro - sentiment was positive, downstream orders had support, and the spot market was active. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted, and attention should be paid to the impact on refined copper consumption. An inventory build - up was expected in August, but the post - off - season tight - balance pattern was more concerning [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the aluminum bonded premium remained unchanged, the difference between Shanghai aluminum spot and the main contract remained unchanged, the spot import profit increased by 43.58, the three - month import profit increased by 28.61, the aluminum C - 3M decreased by 1.84, the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 25, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 50 [2][3]. - Market Analysis: Supply increased slightly, August was a demand off - season, and an inventory build - up was expected. Attention should be paid to demand and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [3]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the zinc social inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE zinc inventory remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc spot import profit increased by 248.87, the Shanghai zinc futures import profit increased by 221.22, the zinc bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M decreased by 4, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 475, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 475 [6]. - Market Analysis: The zinc price fluctuated widely. Supply increased, demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and there might be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. Different trading strategies were recommended for different time horizons [6]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, the Jinchuan premium remained unchanged, the Russian nickel premium decreased by 50, the spot import return decreased by 20.42, the futures import return remained unchanged, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M increased by 13 [7]. - Market Analysis: Pure nickel production was high, demand was weak, and domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained stable. Attention should be paid to opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [10]. - Market Analysis: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some inventory replenishment, nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices were stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [10]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged, the 1 recycled lead price difference increased by 25, the social inventory data had no significant change, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, the spot import return increased by 75.86, the futures import return increased by 70.81, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M decreased by 1, the LME lead inventory decreased by 625, and the LME cancelled warrant increased by 675 [11]. - Market Analysis: The lead price fluctuated. Supply was affected by scrap volume and production costs, demand was not strong in the peak season, and an inventory build - up was expected. The lead price was expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [11][13]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the spot import return increased by 1187.76, the spot export return decreased by 1192.25, the tin position decreased by 647, the LME C - 3M increased by 26, the LME tin inventory remained unchanged, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 20 [14]. - Market Analysis: The tin price fluctuated widely. Supply might decline slightly domestically, and overseas production resumption was uncertain. Demand was limited, and there was a risk of short - squeeze in the overseas market. Different trading strategies were recommended for different time horizons [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 200, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 200, the 553 East China basis increased by 200, the 553 Tianjin basis increased by 200, and the number of warrants increased by 111 [16]. - Market Analysis: The start - up rate of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was less than expected, Sichuan and Yunnan's start - up rates increased slightly. In August, there was a small - scale inventory reduction, and the market was expected to turn to oversupply if production increased. In the long - term, the capacity was in surplus, and the price would fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From August 12 to August 18, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1900, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1900, the main contract basis decreased by 440, the near - month contract basis increased by 1900, and the number of warrants increased by 70 [16]. - Market Analysis: The market was strong this week due to multiple factors. Upstream was willing to sell, downstream procurement was for rigid needs with stronger inventory - replenishment intention, and trading among traders was more active. The short - term price had high upward elasticity and strong downward support [17].
永安期货有色早报-20250819
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-19 01:38