建信期货豆粕日报-20250819

Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report for US soybeans is unexpectedly bullish. Assuming the area estimate is reasonable, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has been mostly digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. The new - season US soybean market will only be slightly loose, and the CBOT soybean low may have been reached, with a future outlook of oscillating slightly stronger [6]. - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the external market. There have been frequent bullish factors recently. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted its imports, and high tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil are favorable for soybean meal. With the 23% tariff on US soybeans remaining until early November, China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybean prices are rising, and it may be difficult to avoid an increase in the cost of imported soybeans. Therefore, soybean meal is expected to remain strong in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: For the soybean meal contracts, the 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3137, opened at 3145, reached a high of 3167, a low of 3123, and closed at 3155, up 18 or 0.57% with a trading volume of 1057425 and an open interest of 2063811, an increase of 48679. The 2509 contract had a previous settlement price of 3082, opened at 3090, reached a high of 3110, a low of 3068, and closed at 3100, up 18 or 0.58% with a trading volume of 363469 and an open interest of 462582, a decrease of 59411. The 2511 contract had a previous settlement price of 3113, opened at 3120, reached a high of 3142, a low of 3100, and closed at 3131, up 18 or 0.58% with a trading volume of 110364 and an open interest of 603346, an increase of 3323. The US soybean futures contract on the external market was oscillating, with the main contract at 1035 cents [6]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.379 billion pounds, slightly lower than the expected 1.38 billion pounds, and up from 1.366 billion pounds in June. The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 195.699 million bushels, higher than the expected 191.59 million bushels and up from 185.709 million bushels in June [15]. - From August 18 - 21, 2025, Pro Farmer will conduct its annual North American field survey. Researchers will measure in more than 2000 corn and soybean fields in seven states, and the results will be announced at 9:00 am Beijing time daily [15]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][14][20]