焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-19）-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: Some coal mines are adjusting work plans and organizing production according to 276 working days, leading to a slight decline in domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, with some high - priced resources having weak transactions and coal prices starting to回调. However, coal mine inventories are low, and there is a strong willingness to hold prices. Although downstream enterprises are still reluctant to accept high - priced coal, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - Coke: After the sixth round of coke price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. But the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down. Although the arrival of coke at steel mills has improved and inventory has increased, the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Some coal mines adjust work plans, reducing domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, and high - priced resources have weak transactions. Coal mine inventories are low, with strong price - holding intentions [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 2.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [2]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - Expectation: Downstream enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced coal, but after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - Positive Factors: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Fundamentals: After the sixth round of price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. The procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the inventory of coking enterprises is still at a low level [6]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 82, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [6]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The arrival of coke at steel mills has improved, and inventory has increased. But the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. - Positive Factors: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [8]. Inventory Data - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [29]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].