建信期货棉花日报-20250819

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was dated August 19, 2025 [2] Research Analysts - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The low - basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1300, but the quantity was scarce, and more quotes were above CF09 + 1300. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was mostly above CF09 + 1450, and the low - basis was in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1450 [7] - Seasonal peak season was approaching, downstream procurement and stocking increased, and market trading improved. Spinning mills still had large losses, but they were narrowing. The operation rate of spinning mills had not recovered, with inland spinning mills maintaining low operation, and inventory decreased. The price of pure cotton grey fabric market remained stable, downstream inquiries and shipments did not improve continuously, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. The overall operation rate of weaving factories increased slightly, and inventory slowly declined [7] - Overseas, the signing and sales data in the first week of the new year were okay, with buyers mainly from Vietnam and Bangladesh. CFTC fund net long positions remained at a low level, and the short - term external market was difficult to break out of the range - bound pattern. In the domestic market, approaching the new cotton listing period, the expected output of new cotton was stable with a slight increase. The current expected opening price of the market was around 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The industrial downstream improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn finished products decreased slightly, the operation rate of spinning mills remained stable, the grey fabric end mainly received small orders, and the overall demand improved slightly compared with the previous period. Before the new cotton was listed, Zhengzhou cotton might fluctuate and adjust around the expected opening price of cotton seeds, with limited short - term upside and downside space [8] Operation Suggestions - No specific operation suggestions were provided in the given content Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and textile products revenue was 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative revenue was 837.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month [9] - On August 14, Conab, the Brazilian National Supply Company, stated that Brazil's cotton output in the 2024/25 season was estimated to be 3.9348 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% (3.7011 million tons in 2023/24). The cotton planting area was estimated to be 2.0857 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% (1.9443 million hectares in 2023/24). The cotton yield per unit area was estimated to be 1,887 kg/hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9% (1,904 kg/hectare in 2023/24) [9] Data Overview - Multiple data charts were presented, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR), with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26]