沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The external market rebounded after a decline, with significant pressure from the upper moving - average lines. The tight supply of imported goods has been somewhat alleviated. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory continues to decline. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year. The medium - and long - term overcapacity pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel - ore price is stable, freight rates are firm, and the nickel - iron price has increased steadily. The cost line has risen slightly, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2510 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - 镍: On August 18, the price of 沪镍主力 was 120,340 yuan, down 260 yuan from August 15; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,170 yuan, down 25 yuan. The prices of various types of spot nickel all increased slightly [12]. - 不锈钢: On August 18, the price of 不锈钢主力 remained unchanged at 13,010 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained flat [12]. 3.2 Inventory - 镍: As of August 18, LME nickel inventory was 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons from August 15; 沪镍 (warehouse receipts) was 23,051 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The total inventory was 233,465 tons, a decrease of 338 tons [15]. - 不锈钢: As of August 15, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared to the previous period. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,093 tons, a decrease of 184 tons from August 15 [19][20]. 3.3 Cost - 镍 - ore and nickel - iron: The prices of red - clay nickel ore and nickel - iron remained stable on August 18 compared to August 15, with only a slight increase in the price of high - nickel wet tons [23]. - Stainless - steel production: The traditional cost was 12,901 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,586 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,519 yuan [25]. - Nickel import: The imported price was converted to 122,349 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, firm nickel - ore prices, and a slight upward trend in the cost line [7]. - Negative factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term overcapacity pattern, and a year - on - year decrease in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].