大越期货玻璃早报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history. Deep - processing orders are lower than the same period in previous years, and terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the weak fundamentals and the fading of macro - positive factors [2]. - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry, but the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the follow - up sustainability of inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1212 yuan/ton, with a 0.08% increase; the spot price of Shahe safety large - plate glass is 1084 yuan/ton, with a 0.37% decrease; the main basis is - 128 yuan/ton, with a 4.07% increase [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Cost - side Fundamentals - No detailed cost - side data is provided, only the topic of glass production profit is mentioned. Supply - side Fundamentals - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%, and the start - up number of production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [21][23]. Demand - side Fundamentals - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original - sheet inventory [27][4]. Inventory Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [41]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [42]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has faded [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream periodic replenishment has led to the reduction of glass factory inventory, but the sustainability of subsequent reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [5].