大越期货油脂早报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports an increase in biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 64, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,600, with a basis of 16, indicating a neutral situation [3] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 74, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply and Demand - Supply aspects include imported soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [24] - Demand aspect includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [14]