大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot basis will vary within a range. Although there is no inventory accumulation pressure in August due to some device overhauls and increased polyester load, the cost side lacks support as oil prices are under pressure [5]. - For MEG, the short - term price center is expected to adjust within a range. With the recovery of polyester load and active point - pricing by polyester factories, the port inventory increase space is limited in August - September [7]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include planned PTA device overhauls in August and the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negative factors are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis was stable, mainly traded among traders, and polyester factories replenished stocks. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. The August goods were negotiated and traded around 09 - 1015, with some lower prices, and a small amount was negotiated around 01 - 5658, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4690. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 12 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4665, the 01 contract basis is - 81, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, and the short position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: In the near term, the processing margin remains low, some PTA devices are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. There is no inventory accumulation pressure for PTA in August. However, oil prices are under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will vary within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on oil prices and the changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the basis strengthened moderately. During the day, the ethylene glycol futures were adjusted at a low level, and the market negotiation was fair. Polyester factories were actively pricing at low levels. The mainstream negotiation price of spot goods was around 4434 - 4448 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was running at a low level. The negotiation price of recent shipments was around 519 - 522 US dollars/ton. The market was mainly for inquiries from traders and some suppliers, and the daily transaction price was at the level of 520 - 522 US dollars/ton [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4439, the 09 contract basis is 93, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: The main net short position, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - Expectation: Last week, the polyester load recovered to around 89.4%, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased. The demand support is gradually strengthening. During the recent price center adjustment of ethylene glycol, polyester factories actively participated in point - pricing. The port shipment will improve in the future, and the port inventory increase space is limited in August - September. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted within a range. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, inventory, etc. [10] - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, new production capacity, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, etc. [11] - Price Data: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on August 18 and August 15, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and profits of related products [12].