建信期货多晶硅日报-20250819

Report Information - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] Market Performance and Outlook - The main contract price of polysilicon continued to show high-level volatility. The closing price of PS2509 was 52,280 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.71%. The trading volume was 425,548 lots, and the open interest was 135,517 lots, a net decrease of 3,206 lots [4] - The photovoltaic enterprise symposium has reignited strong policy implementation expectations, but the futures market has already priced in some of these expectations. Further upward movement depends on subsequent policy support. In the second week of August, the average spot price (recycled feedstock) remained stable at 47,500 yuan/ton, providing strong support for the futures price. However, both supply and demand in the fundamentals are increasing, and there is no inventory reduction drive. The Silicon Industry Branch expects the production schedule in September to reach as high as 145,000 tons, and the rebalancing of industry supply and demand still has a long way to go [4] - On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can roughly meet the downstream cell demand of about 56GW. The monthly production of silicon wafers and cells decreased to around 52GW, and the overall supply-demand pattern remains loose. Overall, the futures and spot prices are supported by policies at the lower end and restricted by supply-demand pressures at the upper end, and are expected to maintain wide-range volatility. Caution should be exercised regarding capital speculation on excessive policy expectations [4] Market News - On August 18, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 5,820 lots, a net increase of 220 lots from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year-on-year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW [5] - Customs data shows that in June 2025, China exported approximately 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month-on-month decrease and a 2% decrease compared to 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was approximately 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]