沪锌期货早报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, an increase in trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with a greater increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volume - driven decline. The price decline led to active entry by long - position holders, while short - position holders exerted stronger pressure. In the short term, the market may oscillate weakly. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. Short - term indicators such as KDJ are declining and operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator is also declining, with the strength of long - position holders decreasing and that of short - position holders increasing, indicating that short - position holders have the upper hand. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 will oscillate weakly [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22,340, and the basis is - 20, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 18, LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons from the previous day to 75,850 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 12,518 tons from the previous day to 32,538 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on August 18 - It provides detailed information on zinc futures of different delivery months, including previous settlement price, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading value, and open interest and its changes [3]. 3.5 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 18 - It shows the prices and price changes of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, galvanized pipe, zinc alloy, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide in different regions [4]. 3.6 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 7 - August 18, 2025) - It presents the zinc ingot inventory in major markets such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu on different dates, as well as the inventory changes compared with August 11 and August 14 [5]. 3.7 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 18 - It details the zinc warrants in different regions and warehouses, including the quantity and changes [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 18 - It shows the inventory, changes, registered warrants, cancelled warrants, and the proportion of cancelled warrants [7]. 3.9 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 18 - It provides the prices, price changes, and other information of zinc concentrates in different regions with a 50% grade [9]. 3.10 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 18 - It shows the prices, price changes, and other information of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters [13]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned refined zinc production was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and an increase of 2.63% compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 18 - It presents the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions for different grades, including the lowest price, highest price, purchase price, and price changes [17]. 3.13 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 18 - It shows the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of different futures companies for the zinc contract zn2510, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [18].