大越期货沪铜早报-20250819

Report Summary Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals show mixed signals, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises' production cuts and loosened scrap copper policy, July PMI at 49.3% (down 0.4 ppts from last month), neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 79280, basis is 330, at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory: On August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, neutral [2]. - Market Trend: Closing price below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, bearish [2]. - Main Position: Main net long position with an increase in long positions, bullish [2]. - Expectation: Slowdown of Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a fluctuating adjustment of copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Influencing Factors: Domestic policy easing and potential trade - war escalation, but no clear indication of bullish or bearish impact is detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024 [20][22]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, and on August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons [2]. - Bonded - Area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16].