建信期货国债日报-20250819

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Long - term, the bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained a "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy and there is high tariff uncertainty. But short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect since late June has put pressure on the bond market, and the short - term rebound of the bond market is unlikely to form a trend. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Condition: A - shares hitting new highs suppressed the bond market, with treasury bond futures falling across the board and long - end bonds experiencing larger declines. The yields of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds approached the 2.0% and 1.8% thresholds respectively [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with long - end yields rising significantly by 4 - 6bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.785%, up 4bp [9] - Funding Market: The central bank increased its investment to offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funding market tightened marginally. There were 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates rose, while medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] - Conclusion: The long - term bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged, but short - term pressure exists. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds and pay attention to the central bank's investment during the tax - period this week [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, stated that policy support will be strengthened to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market, which is important for small and medium - sized enterprises and the diversification of the financial market [13] - On the evening of August 17, Eastern Time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington, and on the afternoon of August 18, Eastern Time, he was scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump [13] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and use structural monetary policy tools [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on August 18, including settlement prices, trading volumes, and open interest, were provided [6] - Money Market: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and other money - market data were presented [28][29] - Derivatives Market: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [32]