贵金属日评-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty around the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September support the upward trend of gold prices. Gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade monetary system and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios also lead to increased volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to consolidate within the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. [6] - Although the global economic situation is not favorable for silver with strong industrial attributes, the central bank's easing expectation may support silver prices in the medium and short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: On August 18th, during the Asian session, London gold rebounded to around $3350 per ounce after falling to $3323 per ounce. The strong rise of the Chinese stock market boosted silver. Gold's safe - haven demand was enhanced due to Trump 2.0's new policies. [4] - Medium - term Market: Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The decline in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade monetary system and the Fed's rate - cut expectation support gold prices. The London gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86. [6] - Domestic Precious Metals Market: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 779.47, up 0.24%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9275, up 0.58%; Gold T + D closed at 774.80, up 0.22%; Silver T + D closed at 9227, up 0.42%. [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [8][10][12] 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a face - to - face meeting in Alaska. They made progress on some issues but did not reach an agreement on suspending the war in Ukraine. A peace proposal involves land exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, but its nature is unclear. [18] - US retail sales in July grew strongly, but labor market softness and rising commodity prices may suppress consumer spending growth in Q3. After the data release, the probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in September dropped from 94% to about 89%. [18] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the rise in service inflation was concerning, indicating a stagflation impact of tariffs on the economy. He believes more data is needed to judge the economic situation. [19]