大越期货PVC期货早报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with increased supply this week and expected further increases in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4999 - 5109. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different operating rate changes, and the shipping cost is bearish. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 8.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 10.30%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,711.85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 1.10%, higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8]. - Other Aspects: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. On August 18, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 124 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%, and social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and profits of different types of enterprises and products, as well as their changes compared with the previous period [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the relationship between basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract [17][18]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report shows the historical trend chart of the spread of the PVC main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Lancoke: It shows the historical trends of Lancoke medium - grade material price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly inventory, and daily output [26][27]. - Calcium Carbide: It shows the historical trends of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream price, Wuhai weekly calcium carbide cost - profit, calcium carbide operating rate, maintenance loss, and production [28][29]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: It shows the historical trends of liquid chlorine price, production, raw salt price, and monthly production [30][32]. - Caustic Soda: It shows the historical trends of 32% caustic soda price in Shandong, caustic soda cost - profit, sample enterprise caustic soda operating rate, weekly production, and maintenance volume [33][34]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend It shows the historical trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC capacity utilization rates, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC profits, PVC daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly PVC capacity utilization rate, and weekly sample enterprise PVC production [38][39][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the historical trends of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly PVC production - sales ratio, PVC apparent consumption, PVC downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream sectors such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin [43][44][45]. - It also shows the historical trends of real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [52][54][55]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the historical trends of vinyl chloride import volume, dichloroethane import volume, PVC export volume, ethylene - based FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [58][59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [61][62].